The unicorn bubble: “It will burst and it will be ugly. I see lots of money in very bad deals”

by | Apr 29, 2019 | Corporates, Investors, Startups, Uncategorized

Marvin Liao worked at Yahoo! for 10 years and has been investing for 5 years in one of the top Silicon Valley VCs, 500 Startups. With Observador he talked about unicorns, Trump and the Portuguese.

He was an executive at Yahoo! for more than 10 years and he’s a partner and investor in 500 Startups, one of Silicon Valley’s leading accelerators and venture capital firms, since 2014. Marvin Liao spoke with Observador as he was passing through Romania, in a video call that goes from “unicorns [companies valued at more than one billion dollars] without real business models,” a bubble that will burst and not only in the technology industry, to the Portuguese and the Lisbon ecosystem, but also Trump, Facebook and data protection. “I see a lot of money going into very bad deals and I do not understand that. I do not understand the evaluations that many of the companies in a more advanced state have”, he said.

Marvin Liao is scheduled to come to Lisbon in June, where he will once again participate in the Lisbon Investment Summit, a two-day event organized by Beta-i that brings together investors and startups from around the world. Marvin knows what he will find: an ecosystem “richer than it was in the past,” with “mature” companies and that is “unbelievably friendly for startups.” But he does not fail to point the finger at what he considers to be the problems of the Portuguese: “work ethics,” “lack of sense of urgency” and ambition. Marvin Liao accompanies and is part of the boards of directors of several portfolio projects of 500 Startups, which includes the Portuguese Talkdesk, and invests mainly in projects in the area of digital media, marketing cloud, e-commerce and mobile platforms.

Mentor on a number of acceleration programs in Europe, Israel and the United States, Marvin says that what he is most looking for in the startups he invests in is “founders with great ambitions, such as Tiago [Paiva] from Talkdesk.” For five years he has been investing in 500 Startups, a very early startup venture capital fund that has invested in more than 2,200 companies in 74 countries. On 6 and 7 June, it will be present at the Lisbon Investment Summit, one of the main events of entrepreneurship that last year included more than 600 startups, 200 investors, 100 speakers and 400 companies from more than 50 countries.

You said in an interview with Beta-i in 2017 that there was “a lot of bullshit product worship.” Are we still at this stage or have we moved on to another cult?

There are so many cults, aren’t there? I think you still feel it [this cult], especially in Europe. I often talk about marketing and sales and still think they are undervalued areas. But this also depends on the ecosystem we are talking about. Sales and marketing are still very, very devalued in Europe in general, and not so much in the USA. But they are also still undervalued in the north-american market.

You also said that in recent years there was a lot of money channeled into the ecosystem and that there were projects that should not even have received investment. What startups were these?

I have spoken in general and there is still a lot of money in the ecosystem. Let me give you the North American market as an example: in the US, at the earliest stage of startups, the seed, it doesn’t circulate much money in the ecosystem, but when you look at what happens in later stages, in growth, the reality is that you have a series of unicorns, which I can not understand. Many of these unicorns do not even have a real business model, do not even have good economic indicators and are even overinvested. This makes no sense to businesses. I think there is a lot of money to flood these companies because the capital markets are very volatile and companies prefer to remain private rather than submit to the reality of the exchanges.

These companies are valued at multi-million dollar values, not because they are worth that, but rather because investors have nowhere to allocate money?

I think that is a big part of it. But it is also true that money has become a commodity for many investors and I think this theme gets into a bigger talk about the economy. What is happening is that since interest rates are so low, there is a lot of money being channeled to private equity and the startup ecosystem, in a hunt for returns – the returns that we cannot reach in other markets. If you think of asset classes from a macro-economic perspective, such as commodities or currencies … I also think that innovation – like technology, venture capital – is one of the biggest assets and, even though a lot of money has been channeled there, it remains a very, very small asset.

We’re still in a bubble, then. Do you agree?

Yes, I really think we’re in a bubble, but I do not think it’s just a technological bubble. There is a bubble in all asset classes. If you look at the valuations of all companies, even the ones that are listed in the markets, you realize that they are growing. There is so much demand for returns everywhere that to me, everything is a bubble.

And when is it going to bust? Because it’s going to burst, isn’t it?

Yes. And it’s going to be brutal and bad. I hope we have at least another year or two to get as much money as we can because I think it’s going to be really ugly.

Can it happen in two years?

It is hard to say. That’s the trillion dollar issue. If I knew, we probably would not be having this conversation here, I would have been retired on the beach. I do not know, but the reality is that there is still a lot of money available, there is still a lot of money that is looking for returns and I question the structures of many businesses. Many countries, many companies in general. It is a concern. So it’s going to bust sometime, yeah. I do not know if it’s going to be a year or a week from now, because if we think about it, the economy is very cyclical… And we’ve been recovering since 2010, I think it’s the period that has lasted the most, around 8 years. It’s a long time.

Will the side effects of this bubble be worse than the ones we experienced after Lehman Brothers bankruptcy?

What’s interesting about this is that we look a lot at the 500 companies [the S&P index] and realize that they are very well capitalized. I think business is not growing, but they’re sitting on lots of money and that’s interesting. I think what is happening, at least in the US market, is that we have very low interest rates and, although we do not like our government these days, the truth is that it has been very friendly to companies, has made many changes and when you look at the North American market it is perceived to be very robust. But when you talk to people and when you read the news everyone seems to be very convinced that a great recession or depression will come very soon.

What I think is that, as a general rule, the consensus among people is wrong, so part of me… I look at the signs and I perceive that they are bad, but I also question myself… Because there is a school of thought that says that when you believe that one thing will happen, it happens, but there is another that says that when everyone believes that something is going to happen, it begins to move in another direction to avoid it and it does not happen. There is a reflection of volatility about this. So it may not be as bad as people judge. I do not know.

You’re divided.

Yes, but I worry from a macroeconomic point of view. I see a lot of money going into very bad deals and I do not understand it.

What bad deals are these?

I do not understand the assessments that many of the companies in a more advanced state have.

Can you give me examples?

The problem is with many of the unicorns we’ve talked about. But I also have to be careful here because they all have, in their pool of investors, a lot of friends of mine and I do not want to make enemies [laughs]. Many venture capitalists invested, in my opinion, in overvalued companies.

You spoke of the current US government. What were the most significant changes to the startup and technology community made by the Trump administration?

I do not know if any. Trump is not a fan of the [US West Coast], and as you know, Silicon Valley and all of California in general, is very anti-Trump and so… If you think about all the policies he’s promoted, like anti-immigration, you realize that they are a threat to technology as a whole. But on the other hand, there are other company friendly moves who have allowed a series of mergers and acquisitions, and tax changes have benefited many large corporations overall.

Is not this related to the protectionism that Trump wants for the American economy?

In some respects. I am not sure that the Trump administration has so many political strategies, but one we are going to see without a doubt is the commercial war against China. And one of the few things I agree with: the Chinese government’s economic policy has not necessarily been good for Americans or anyone. It is something that has been happening for a long time and nobody faces them. That part I even understand, but I do not like anything else.

What dangers are facing the startups ecosystem now?

There has been a great change in the way we see things. Today, one looks at Facebook, at Google and it is realized that there is a retaliation against technology in general, particularly in the US, but I think everywhere. I also think the flood of money in Silicon Valley is very negative overall for the culture. And this is a kind of bubble in San Francisco. And it’s very negative. I think almost all of us have been operating in a bubble for a long time … I think there are a lot of Ubers in technology in general, and that the uberization bubble has already burst. Now, we are beginning to realize that technology is a force of good, but that it can also be a force of evil. In the Bay Area, there was a bubble that blinded us to many of the negative things technology has brought.

He spoke on Facebook, which since the Cambridge Analytica bust has been involved in several scandals and now wants to be a platform more focused on privacy. Will you get to that point?

I think they will. They are super smart, have lots of money and lots of resources to move in that direction. Honestly, they are learning a lot from China. Look at WeChat, which has everything combined in one app. I think they are going to move in that direction, they are very well positioned and they have very intelligent people working in the company. The reality is that you look at them and you do not believe they behave in a certain way, but when you start thinking about Facebook as an ecosystem … I use it every day, whether you like it or not. I do not know how the younger generations are looking at Facebook, but I think it’s well positioned. Many young girls use Instagram and WhatsApp.

Is Facebook becoming the WeChat of the West?

Yes, I think so. I think WeChat is doing very well and it makes sense.

But that would mean that they would have control and monopoly on so many things … Is not it troubling to have so much data in one company?

Yes, but Google also has all this data and Amazon too. There is a great book I recommend to everyone in the world, Data and Goliath: The Hidden Battles to Collect Your Data and Control Your World” [Bruce Schneier], this is already happening. Nor do we need to start talking about what governments already know about us. Yes, we should have worried, but this has already happened. It’s not happening, it’s already happened.

And should we just accept? What should we do?

I think we should be using VPN more often, we need to be very careful with what we put online. The truth is that many of them already have this information. It’s a scary world and I think there will be retaliation from people.

He said that the uberization bubble burst. What about social networks?

No, I think social networks have become useful. All people use them, it’s like the air you breathe, so I do not know if they’ll ever end. The truth is that if we think about them a lot we realize that they are basically the online version of something that is very similar to what we already did. Of course we already want to socialize, but the difference is that on Facebook we do it virtually and if we look at Twitter …. All of these are reflections of things that humans naturally do. If it is Facebook that will be in the future it is difficult to say, but there will be something, some platform.

What are the new trends now? What are you looking for in your investments?

I still look at many things like cloud or software as a service, because I think all this is still very early on. It may have been available for about 20 years, but if you think about how many people use this software, we realize it’s a relatively low number. I also look a lot at biotechnology, digital health.

Has the new European data protection regulation been a good measure or is it a barrier?

It’s a mixture of the two. There is a scary level of lack of privacy. I think the backbone is very good, but I think it also has other unintended consequences. It will make small business life harder. The only companies that will be able to comply with the RGPD are the big ones. The big advantage is in companies that have money and resources, but it’s going to be a big challenge for startups. All laws begin with good intentions, but there are also many unintended consequences. One is that ironically this will only help the big ones.

Is Europe still very different from the North America?

I do not know if the US is an example. There are many wonderful things and other horrible things: we have a health system of trickery and teaching health too. I’m not sure if we’ll be an example. But I also do not know if Europe will be. Europe also has havoc. There is damage everywhere. I am not sure that any country has discovered the formula.

You’ve been to Lisbon a few times. Have you seen differences in the ecosystem?

Yes, no doubt he is now richer than he was in the past. We’ve seen a lot of mature companies roll out B-Series and C-series investment rounds, and if you do, Talkdesk is doing very well. It is one of the companies in our portfolio and it is incredible. We start to see some companies like this and also the maturity of the ecosystem in general … I think this is good and they have an ecosystem incredibly friendly to startups.

And what do we do wrong?

There is still an ethical problem at work. I do not think it is as serious as in other parts of Europe. Portugal is still very interesting, I like the ecosystem, but I do not think people work what they need to work. Maybe that’s my American side talking about, but I think that work ethics is a problem and that there is still a sense of urgency.

Do the Portuguese lack a sense of urgency?

I think it’s still a problem. And I also think companies are not thinking as big as they should and have examples, like Talkdesk. Talkdesk should be a model for Portuguese companies – big ambitions, big ones – and I still do not see them.

Is Talkdesk different because it benefits from being in the US right from the start?

I think it helps, but half of the team is in Lisbon and another half in the USA. I think this should be the model of the future.

Having events like the Web Summit is important for Lisbon if affirming itself as a hotspot of the technological community in Europe?

Yes, I think it helps. These events are a good way to galvanize the community and bring new things. I think the Web Summit is very good for Portugal as a technological ecosystem, especially because of all the new contacts: new investors and new startups that are now in Portugal. For the country, I think it was money well spent. It was a good investment and has been very useful for Portugal.

What is most important to you when investing?

Involved in a very early stage – the seed and the pre-seed – and as a rule I like to see a product working already, some initial data on the consumers. And I like to see founders with great ambitions, like Tiago [Paiva] from Talkdesk. I’m looking for people like Tiago.

Is the secret always in the founders?

At this stage of the companies yes, in other states, later on, it is very different.

Has 500 Startups already recovered from the sexual harassment scandal involving former CEO Dave McClure?

This has happened for over a year and a half. We are a very different company now, but the truth is that Dave was just one of the co-founders, he was not so involved in the day to day. I think we have recovered, yes, we are raising our fifth fund now, we continued to invest in our portfolio and we continued on. I do not know if there is such a big change in the culture of the company, because the truth is that as an organization we have done nothing wrong. Personally, I’m very upset about everything that happened and also for being found guilty of something that neither I nor my team did.

But Dave’s case was revealed at a time when there were other cases on Uber, Google, etc.

I think many of the things that happened were terrible and that people should be punished for it. This forced that there was more perception on this subject and a cultural change. If you look at many of the venture capital funds, all the big ones have a woman in the right direction now. I am not saying that the problems have all been solved, I am saying that now we see that there is a greater perception about this and that there has been a cultural change happening in the last two years. If you look at all the scandals that happened in Hollywood on Wall Street, I do not think that has caused these industries to change.

I know you’re addicted to buying books. What book would you recommend to Portuguese entrepreneurs?

I would recommend to the Portuguese, whether or not they are entrepreneurs, the “CA$ HVERTISING: How to Use More Than 100 Secrets of Ad-Agency Psychology to Make Big Money Selling Anything to Anyone.” It’s a book about understanding human psychology, the power of language, and I think it’s useful whether you’re in a startup or not. It’s a very useful book indeed.

This interview by Ana Pimentel was first published in Observador – read it in portuguese here.

Why Your Startup Should Have a UX Designer

by | Apr 26, 2019 | Corporates, Investors, Startups, Uncategorized

There has been a constant rise in demand for UX designers, but what really is UX design? And how can it help startups move their business forward?

What is UX?

UX stands for user experience, which refers to a person’s emotions and attitudes about using a particular product, system or service. It includes the practical, experiential, affective, meaningful and valuable aspects of human–computer interaction and product ownership – which means it includes the online and offline experience of the consumer with a brand or product.

What can we tell if it’s a good design?

From landing pages to store shopping experiences – how do you if your design is good? Well there are a couple of performance indicators you can use:

  • Sales: Did the experience result in sales? An increase in sales is a good reflection of straightforward user experience.
  • Retention: Did the customer became a returning customer? A returning customer is a sign of satisfied consumer.
  • Completion of a task: Did the consumer finish the goal of the experience (be it an application submission, points conversion, video watched)?

It’s important to define how you measure the success of the design – by clearly defining a goal for it that can be turned into the KPI (Key Performance Indicator).

UX for Startups

When building your product, everything comes down to your user experience. From how you approach your clients initially to how their invoice is generated, presenting your startup in the best possible light is essential.

The methods used by UX Designers are, essentially, the methods most lean startups use: prototyping, iterative learning and lots of testing.

These methods allow startups to discover what works before investing lots of money into manufacturing or developing the product. They use the vast amount of user data available (through social media and smart devices) and apply its new technologies such as artificial intelligence, to create valuable insights for the business.

The Value of Design

A report by McKinsey indicates that the companies that succeed in using design as a methodology (who scored in top-quartile in the McKinsey Design Index) also outperformed industry-benchmark growth as much as two to one.

They also noted that to achieve these results is not enough to just hire UX Designers (although that helps!), but also to embrace design thinking throughout the company. The top performers all succeeded in these four main areas:

Analytical Leadership:

To embrace design metrics as heartily as revenues and cost metrics. This analytical thinking can help leaders make decisions based on evidence rather than gut feelings. This type of thinking must also create a deeper knowledge of the consumer (what the consumer needs and not what it says it wants) for all employees, including executives.

Cross Functional Talent

Top-quartile companies make user-centric design everyone’s responsibility, not a siloed function. This means using a consumer-centric approach in all departments of the company. [Read here how Beta-i helped Galp bring their costumer-centricity into focus.]

Continuos Iteration

A design methodology is not something that you can do just once – it’s something that must be continuously worked on in order to work. The best-performing companies encourage continuous testing, learning and iterating. This constant work helps companies avoid big costly mistakes.

User Experience

The importance of user-centricity, demands a broad-based view of where design can make a difference. This means mapping a customer journey with its pain points and delights, rather than re-using a previous model. The broader view of the consumer journey will demand a break down of the barriers between digital and physical, as the online world gets intertwined with real experiences in the consumers’ world.

In the end user experience is all about design thinking in all areas of a business, which its focal point is to minimize all risks by getting more accurate information to base decisions on.

Lisbon Challenge: the program approach and phases overview

by | Apr 23, 2019 | Corporates, Investors, Startups, Uncategorized

The 11th edition of Lisbon Challenge is advancing at full steam! The teams are in their third week of the program, and well into the validation phase. We’ve mentioned how intensive the program is, but do you want to know how much? Let’s go over the program overview!

A people-centric approach

Lisbon Challenge is Beta-i’s flagship accelerator program, and one of the most recognized programs in Europe. It’s a 10-week program designed to question the founders’ assumptions, help them find their product-market fit and prepare them for the road ahead – scaling and investment.

The program inherited Beta-i’s people-centric approach – but what does that mean?

It means that throughout the phases, founders will be challenged to take  a people-centric approach:

  • On customers – the people they are solving the problem for;
  • The team – the people they are building the company with;
  • Themselves – who they are as entrepreneurs and how they need to evolve with the business.

Program Timeline

For 10 weeks, the 6 teams on this edition will go through an intense program, filled with enriching content, workshops and mentoring sessions. The goal is for them to be in perfect shape for Investment Day, the culmination of those 10 weeks on acceleration.

These are the phases:

Validation

The founders will start by validating their value proposition and gaining a better understanding of what could be their target audience and their potential needs.

Product And Tech

A deep-dive into the startups’ solutions and the technology behind them. They must discover and define how is their project solving the clients’ needs better than any other out there, and design a roadmap for product market fit.

Growth

Here the founders will learn how to talk with customers and make sure they don’t leave after trying the product. In a nutshell, it will be all about customer retention and which metrics should be analyzed in order to figure it out.

Investment

In this phase, it’s all about preparing for investment! Startups learn to understand investors, and what they are looking for. They also learn practical stuff – what to say (and not to say!), and to tell your story and get investors to listen to them. This is an important phase as it leads to investment day!

Investment Day

The 10 weeks of the program lead up to Investment Day – a day when the startups will pitch on stage and then meet investors and possible corporate partners. This batch will have the whole ecosystem cheering on them – as they will be pitching at Lisbon Investment Summit, happening on the 6th and 7th of June.

If you, too, want to cheer them on – on shine yourself on the #LIS stage, get your 2×1 Founder tickets and apply to pitch on stage!

How To Speak Startup Lingo

by | Apr 16, 2019 | Corporates, Startups, Uncategorized

Startups can sound like american college fraternities

The startupian language is not an american college fraternity glossary but… you can definitely find your favorite greek letters there as Alphas and Betas are here to stay.

If a startup is on Alpha stage, it is on its very first version, testing and finding their way through life. Naturally, Beta comes right after, looking more confident and trustworthy. Since you are more mature, some investors can even give you an allowance.

This is just the intro of the startupian ABC and since all startups speak the same language, here are a few other things I think you should know if you want to be startupian-fluent.

(Or even if you don’t know anything about it but would like to get a glimpse)

It’s a two-animal ecosystem – and one doesn’t even exist

The first – You dream about it, you want one for Christmas.

Yes, of course, it’s the unicorn.

If you are a startup, most of the times, you want to become one. With your long colored hair of over $1 billion. That’s an expensive haircut that in 2018 more than 260 startups had.

The second – you avoid it, you don’t want it in your house.

Yup, the “OMG WHAT IS THIS” Cockroach.

It is the startup that is growing gradually and progressively. It will, as a cockroach, outlive you.

It all starts with a seed.

It is the rule of life! Well, in this case it’s more about money.

Seed Money is the initial money a startup gets to start – from the founders themselves, though savings or loans, family and friends help or even external investors. Besides this, there are several other investment rounds a startup can receive.

“You’re loving Angels instead”

(Pardon my pop culture, late 90’s and early 00’s have made a come back here in the office)

Well, you will love them, as Angel Investors usually invest  in an initial moment of a startup. There is, of course, a lot of other Investors for Startups.

“What’s your Pitch, tell me what’s your Pitch”

(Told you!)

So, if you grab your online Oxford Dictionary, the 7th and my favourite definition of pitch – at least while writing this post – is “A place where a street vendor or performer stations themselves or sets up a stall.”

Now, imagine the world has transformed itself into a huge Speakers’ Corner and all places are good for you to set up your stall. It should be a concise, clarifying and captivating presentation of your startup. This is possible, especially if you are following the right tips.

Also, we’ve set up the perfect stage for a startup to set up their stall – just Apply to Pitch at #LIS19

See you there?

Lisbon Investment Summit: Daniel Araújo from Attentive

by | Apr 16, 2019 | Corporates, Investors, Startups, Uncategorized

Attentive has been in Beta-i’s ecosystem for a long time – they were winners of the Fall Edition of Lisbon Challenge in 2015. Since then, they have grown their company and took advantage of Beta-i’s network and events – just like Lisbon Investment Summit.

We spoke with Daniel Araújo, CEO and Co-founder of Attentive.us about their relationship with events like LIS.

ReThink: What first attracted you to attend Lisbon Investment Summit the first time around?

Daniel Araújo: We were part of the Beta-i community even before the first edition of the Lisbon Investment Summit, so when we heard about it we were very excited about having an informal gathering of many of the key European investors interacting with early-stage Portuguese startups. Since that first edition, Beta-i always brought a nice element of surprise, in the content and in the venues, that kept the event’s unique positioning untouched.

RT: What did you enjoy more in your experience at LIS?

DA: I’d highlight the vibe that you feel among all the attendees – positive, open, constructive. There’s always a lot to talk about around the content of the panels, and the event feels designed to leave some room for casual interactions. This makes it incredibly fruitful. Did I mention that everyone seems to be having a great time? 🙂

RT: How did your attendance at LIS impact your business?

DA: Every year, participating in LIS allows us to strengthen and reinforce our connections to the ecosystem, especially around investors. We’ve got several investors that we meet only at LIS, despite us participating in other events across Europe and the US. We also got to meet many partners of the Portuguese ecosystem, which have supported us in so many different ways over the years. I get asked many times by early-stage founders how to kickstart their network, and my invariable answer is: go to the Lisbon Investment Summit – network and absorb the great content.

RT: You recently announced your latest investment round of $1.2M, led by Mangrove Capital and Indico Capital Partners. Did Beta-i or LIS help you get in touch with your investors, or in some other way?

DA: Beta-i and LIS are intrinsically linked to our company’s first steps, so they played – actually, they still play today – a very important role in our development and growth. Not only did the event kickstart our network when we were starting, but we also refined and tuned our pitch, improved the way we communicate our vision and contributed to us getting access to TechStars. After meeting several dozens of investors, Mangrove, Indico and we were incredibly aligned on our vision for what Attentive can become. Moreover, they have an incredible track record, which will surely help us as we grow.

RT: Why do you think Portuguese startups are so relevant and able to attract foreign investment?

DA: There’s a very combination of benefits that Portuguese startups can and should take advantage of, several of them have been shown repeatedly at #LIS: English-speaking, global ambitions, strong universities, and talent. In the last few years, as investors started to come for LIS and the Web Summit, they have built a local trust network that gives them the confidence in our talent. I’m pretty sure that will only increase over the next editions of LIS!

Get tickets for Lisbon Investment Summit and apply to pitch on stage in the next edition of LIS – June 6th and 7th.

Lisbon Investment Summit: Gil Dibner from Angular Ventures

by | Apr 16, 2019 | Corporates, Investors, Startups, Uncategorized

Gil Dibner, Founder and Managing Partner at Angular Ventures, has been confirmed as a speaker on Lisbon Investment Summit, happening on the 6th and 7th of June in sunny Lisbon.

The first time Gil came to Lisbon Investment Summit was a random accident, but a fortuitous one: he ended up meeting a founder of a company that became an angel investment. “I hope it’s the first of many” he added.

For startups hoping to get this type of luck and casually meet an investor at #LIS, or startups applying to compete on stage at the pitch competition, Gil suggests they think global: “Remember that every stage is a global stage. There really is no such thing as a “local” startup or startup hub.”

Thinking global is also one of the reasons Gil believes are in the growth of Lisbon as a startup hub, able to attract investment from around the world:

It’s increasingly clear that technology is a global business – and that great innovation can come from anywhere. It’s also clear that Lisbon has a strong and growing track record of producing companies with global significance.

Gil Dibner will be at Lisbon Investment Summit, an informal event that gathers the most innovative startups, seasoned investors and daring corporate innovators, happening in Lisbon on June 6th and 7th. Get tickets here.